Match Focus: Allegri Requires a Touch of Luck to Halt Messi & Co. in Saturday's Final

Ahead of the biggest game in club football, Max Allegri faces the biggest conundrum in all football. It is the issue that has defined the entire season, and the question that so many managers have failed to answer, leaving Barcelona on the brink of a second treble in their history as they face Juventus in the Champions League final. 

This, yet again, is what it all boils down to: how do you stop a Leo Messi playing at this level? 

That may sound so simplistic, but it is brutally realistic because it involves such a complex task. It is also one that is all the more complicated because this treble-winning question is itself so double-edged. It is not just about trying to defend Messi. It is about whether you can devote enough players to trying to defend against him, while also actually having enough to try and attack to win the game yourself. 

Is it even possible when he’s in this form, and so clearly motivated to apply himself in games of this magnitude? It wasn’t for a coach as sophisticated and familiar with Messi as Pep Guardiola, as his Bayern Munich were devastated by the Argentine semi-final. 

Those two sensational goals were just the beginning of a series of decisive strikes, culminating in his trophy-winning moments against Atletico Madrid in the league and Athletic Club in the Copa Del Rey. 

Messi deciding the Champions League final would add an appropriate sense of completeness to perhaps the most complete season of his career, but the real trouble for Allegri is that it is not just about blocking the Barca number-10’s route to goal. It is also about preventing him creating such routes for others. 

That influence has ensured that only Bayern (33) have scored more goals in the Champions League this season than Barcelona (28), who so thrillingly release Luis Suarez and Neymar, along with Messi, time and again. Luis Enrique’s side have scored 26 goals from open play this season in the Champions League alone, more than any team. 

Juventus, by contrast, are so much more constrained and minimalist. They have only scored 10 goals from open play and are generally much less thrusting. 

All of the stats show that Juventus are more calculated in when they attack. 

That may represent a mere difference in style, if also quality, but it is also so relevant to the question Allegri must ponder. 

Can Juventus afford to be so economical against that kind of excess? Will they be able to hurt Barca enough? You only have to look at the fact that they have only scored three goals from counter-attacks in Serie A and the Champions League this season, and all of those were in domestic competition. 

Does Allegri then need to come up with a true trump card, something radically different. After all, even if Juventus attempt Antonio Conte’s fully intense pressing game, it will just leave acres of space in behind for Messi and co to tear forward. Guardiola’s Bayern already showed how that amounts to football suicide. 

This is all further complicated by the absence of Giorgio Chiellini. It is not just defensive protection he provides, but proactive play from the back. He is charged with initiating so many of their attacks, as indicated by how his average number of passes in the Champions League has gone up from 58.8 last season to 71.9 this, and how he has played the most forward balls (346) in the competition this season. 

Likely replacement Andrea Barzagli plays nothing like the same amount of passes per game (45.3) and is generally much less sturdy. He tackles less than Chiellini (1.3 compared to 2.6), fouls less (0.3 compared to 1.3), clears less (3.9 to 5.1) and blocks less (0.2 to 0.9), when comparing the duo’s league stats given Barzagli’s lack of European action this campaign. 

That double-edged question for Allegri is therefore itself only doubled down on. 

So, how can he find that balance to see Gigi Buffon lift the trophy? One potential avenue might be through Arturo Vidal. His aggression could potentially stem the flow in Barca’s midfield. The Chilean has made more tackles (50) than any other player in this season’s Champions League, while only two are averaging more fouls per game than the fiery midfielder (2.5). 

Beyond all of that, there is his running alongside Claudio Marchisio, which could suddenly open up the pitch if they do manage to suddenly close down Barca’s midfield at just the right moment. 

It does look like it’s going to come down to those kind of margins for the Italians, unless Messi is in the mood to show just how wide the gap between him and everybody else really is. 

Allegri needs the Argentine to have an off-night, a flash of inspiration and an awful lot of luck. 

It’s a big ask.

Who do you think will be crowned Europe's best when Juventus and Barcelona face off in Berlin on Saturday? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below