Uruguay vs France - Does Cavani’s injury derail hopes for South American side?
The first quarter-final tie of the 2018 World Cup will be contested between Uruguay and France in Nizhniy Novgorod on Friday afternoon. Neither team have hit their stride but both overcame difficult round of 16 matches to reach the last eight. France finished on the right side of a seven-goal thriller against Lionel Messi’s Argentina, while Uruguay dumped Euro 2016 winners Portugal out of the tournament with a 2-1 win.
With Atletico Madrid duo Diego Godin and Jose Gimenez at the heart of Uruguay's defence, it is no surprise the South American outfit have been solid defensively this summer. Oscar Tabarez’s side have kept clean sheets in three of their four matches at the 2018 World Cup, conceding their first goal of the tournament last time out.
However, it hasn’t looked particularly pretty in transition from defence to attack. Luis Suarez is still looking to rediscover his best form and now Uruguay have been rocked by news Edinson Cavani will almost certainly miss out on a starting berth due to a thigh injury sustained towards the end of their win over Portugal. Uruguay are still hopeful Cavani will be able to make the bench, but even that is doubtful at this stage.
Cavani scored both of Uruguay’s goals in the last round and his absence will be a huge loss for the South Americans, only increasing the pressure on Suarez to perform. It also remains unclear who Tabarez will select to replace Cavani in the starting line up, if the Paris Saint-Germain fails to prove his fitness in time.
Uruguay have an exciting 21-year-old striker waiting in the wings but Cristhian Stuani, who scored 21 league goals for Spanish side Girona last season, has been tipped to start in favour of Maxi Gomez if Tabarez continues with a two-man attack line against Euro 2016 finalists France. Stuani enjoyed an utterly remarkable campaign for Girona last term, but the 31-year-old has only managed five goals in more than 40 caps for Uruguay since making his debut in 2012.
France will be the best team Uruguay have faced at the 2018 World Cup and Tabarez may be tempted to use this opportunity to solidify his midfield further. The 71-year-old has tinkered with the personnel in midfield throughout the tournament but appears to have settled on using defensive midfielder Rodrigo Bentancur as his furthest forward midfielder. It's a clear indication that he does not want Uruguay to play open and expansive football, relying on two world class strikers to be ruthless in front of goal.
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Unfortunately for Tabarez, they have not been as efficient as he would hope. Only Belgium (11) have missed more clear-cut goalscoring chances than Uruguay (9) this summer, which is not particularly inspiring when you consider only Russia (21) have created fewer goalscoring opportunities from open play than Uruguay (25) of the eight remaining teams left in the 2018 World Cup.
While Russia are converting a tournament-high 22.9% of their overall chances, Uruguay are only netting 12%. Cavani's absence would only heap further pressure on Suarez to perform and the Barcelona striker's cause would not be helped if Tabarez selects another defensive-minded midfielder on Friday. An alternative strategy could be to pick Giorgian de Arrascaeta. There were high hopes of the 24-year-old ahead of the tournament but he has not caught the eye, dropping out of the starting XI after Uruguay’s opening game and barely getting a look-in since. He has only made one substitute appearance since then, but he is Uruguay’s only notable midfielder that can provide creativity.
Replacing Cavani for another defensive-minded midfielder would only isolate Suarez up front. Despite scoring four goals against Argentina, France have not completely convinced in attack. Didier Deschamps continues to divide opinion among fans and Uruguay should already have sufficient cover to ensure France continue to look disjointed up front. The last five meetings between France and Uruguay have only seen one goal scored and four goalless draws. It would be a huge surprise if their upcoming encounter didn’t follow a similar path.
Suarez is the only player to find the back of the net in that time and Uruguay will need the 31-year-old to inspire them against Les Bleus here too. The 31-year-old has scored two goals and provided one assist in four games at the 2018 World Cup but he has been incredibly wasteful. Only three players have missed more clear-cut chances than Suarez in Russia this summer (3) and Uruguay will almost certainly bow out of the tournament if Suarez’s fails to turn up on Friday.
