Feature Focus: WhoScored.com’s Match Forecasts Analysed
We all try and predict what is going to happen in football matches. But part of the difficulty (and beauty) of doing so is the sheer unpredictability of the game itself. Without it, Wigan would not have bowed out of the FA Cup at the hands of fourth-tiered Swindon last weekend. Nor would Lazio have surrendered their unbeaten away record to Siena, who, at the time, were the out-of-form Serie A side, without a win in 7 games. Without these upsets, football would be a very different game and would not attract nearly the audience it does.
However, on goes our quest to predict the outcome of games. The ability to do so would be a serious money-spinner. WhoScored.com have, with the wealth of statistics we have, developed characteristics and styles of play for each team in Europe’s top 5 leagues. Using these, we have developed Match Forecasts, in which we give specific predictions for events that may occur during any specific match. There is of course no guarantee here, but based on statistics from earlier in the season, these events are more likely to occur. Here, we take a closer look at the Match Forecasts for four of the weekend’s big games, and do our best to predict how the game might pan out.
AC Milan vs Inter
The Milan derby sees the two in-form teams in Serie A face up against each other at their shared home ground. AC have won 10 of their last 12 games, while Inter have won 5 games on the trot after their distinctly below-par start to the season.
Somewhat surprisingly given their position at the top of the league, AC have gone behind in 6 games already this season. However, they are on top of the pile in no small part down to their performances when staring defeat in the face. On 4 of the 6 occasions they have gone behind, AC have come back to rescue at least a point. Most impressive of those was their Kevin-Prince Boateng inspired comeback from 3 goals down at half time at Lecce to win 4-3. Boateng scored a 14-minute hat-trick in that game to level the scores before Mario Yepes won it for the Rossoneri.
In addition to their Serie A comebacks, AC have also come from 2-1 down at the Nou Camp to rescue a draw, and, particularly relevantly, won the Supercoppa Italiana 2-1, after going behind to a Wesley Sneijder strike against this weekend’s opponents, Inter.
Inter Milan, meanwhile, have surrendered winning positions in Serie A on three occasions this season, most notably at lowly Catania, where they lost 2-1 after going ahead. However, it is important to note the improvements Inter have shown in recent weeks, and they have not given up a lead in any of their last 15 games in all competitions. Claudio Ranieri seems to have addressed the issue, but it will be interesting to see how his side copes against this season’s ‘comeback kings’.
Man Utd vs Bolton
‘Man United will score from a wingplay situation’ – Extremely likely
Manchester United’s wide men have provided a constant threat to defenders throughout the season. Ashley Young started the season in scintillating form, while Nani has remained dangerous and Antonio Valencia has come into his own of late, providing added threat from his new berth at right-back. The three have picked up 19 assists between them this season, with strikers Rooney, Hernandez, Berbatov and Welbeck reaping the rewards, with 29 goals combined.
United clearly aim to utilise the pace and skill they possess out wide, with 16 of their 49 goals (32.7%) in the Premier League this season having come from ‘wingplay situations’. Their opponents this weekend, Bolton, have conceded the joint most goals in the Premier League this season, having shipped 43 goals in 20 games so far. 12 of those goals (27.9%) have been scored as a result of their failure to deal with crosses into their penalty area from wide positions.
The traits in the style of play of these sides have been no more evident this season than when the two sides met at the Reebok Stadium back in September. United were in rampant form as they ran out 5-0 victors, with Wayne Rooney hitting a second hat-trick in as many games. That day, Bolton’s left side of Paul Robinson and Martin Petrov were overawed by the pace and attacking intent of United’s Nani and Phil Jones. Robinson and Petrov picked up WhoScored ratings that day of 6.0 and 5.8 respectively, while Nani (8.7) and Jones (8.8) were a constant threat, completing 3 and 4 successful dribbles respectively. Nani picked up 2 assists while Jones got his only assist of the season so far from a cross in that game, and one might well expect United to set out to exploit that superiority once again.
Swansea vs Arsenal
Premier League newcomers Swansea have impressed with their short passing game this season – only Arsenal and Manchester City have made more short passes – but this has not always yielded the desired result for them. Leon Britton has the second highest pass success rate in Europe’s top 5 leagues, completing 93.8% of his passes, while Ashley Williams makes the fourth most passes per game in the Premier league, with 66.4. However, Britton’s role in defensive midfield and Williams’ position as centre-back highlight the problem for the Swans – much of their play occurs in their own half of the pitch.
In fact, Swansea have played 31% of their football at their end of the pitch – the second most in the Premier League. Arsenal, meanwhile, who travel to the Liberty Stadium this weekend, have had just 26% of the play in their third of the pitch, the joint second least in the league.
Both teams like to keep the ball on the floor and stick to the short-passing style of play they favour, and things will be no different this weekend. However, expect much of this to happen at Swansea’s end of the pitch. It will be interesting to see whether Arsenal can make this dominance count, having scored the second most goals away from home in the Premier League, and Swansea having conceded the joint least in home games. The odd goal may be the difference.
‘Montpellier will score as a result of a through ball’ – Very likely
Second host fourth in this top of the table Ligue 1 clash, with Montpellier having recently surrendered their place at the top to PSG. Montpellier are the league’s top scoring side, with 39 goals so far this season, of which 6 have come from through balls. Lyon, meanwhile, have let in 2 of the 21 goals they have conceded as a direct result of a through ball by the opposition.
Montpellier playmaker Younes Belhanda has certainly played his part, with 8 of his 10 attempted through balls reaching their target and creating a goalscoring opportunity for a teammate. Belhanda has picked up 3 of his 4 assists as a result of successful through balls to his strikers, and he may well be the key to unlocking Lyon’s backline in this crunch game.
