Championship title race: Who has the easiest and most difficult run-in?

Following the midweek fixtures in the Championship it’s fair to say there are some gaps emerging at the business end of the table.

West Brom’s last minute winner at QPR moved Darren Moore’s side within three points of Norwich at the top of the pile, with Sheffield United and Leeds sandwiched between.

While Middlesbrough and Bristol City are certainly not out of the running for an automatic promotion spot if they can make the most of games in hand, there’s a six-point gap to the former in fifth, while Derby’s chances of a top two finish were dealt a severe blow by Millwall.

With that in mind we’ve taken a look at the remaining fixtures of each of the top four teams in the division to ascertain which may have the most and indeed least favourable run-ins. To do so we calculated the league ranks of each of the team’s opponents based on whether there upcoming fixture was to be played at home or away.

For example, any team that still has to play Brentford at Griffin Park - such as Leeds - faces a considerably tougher test than those yet to host the Bees - like Sheffield United - given Thomas Frank’s side boast the fourth best home record in the division but rank 20th on their travels.

The results make for encouraging reading for Chris Wilder’s Blades in particular, who face a tough trip to the Hawthorns this weekend, as well as an away game at Leeds, but have some favourable opponents besides. They may still be considered dark horses for automatic promotion but upcoming fixtures with Sheffield Wednesday (who rank 21st away), Rotherham (23rd at home) and Brentford (20th away) are all very winnable.

Meanwhile, with Millwall and Ipswich still to travel to Brammall Lane towards the end of the campaign, Sheffield United have reason to feel confident. The average rank of their 13 remaining opponents when taking match venue into account is lower than any other team in the division, at 14.46.

Leeds aren’t far behind (third) in that sense (14.07 average opponent rank), and with a game in hand over their competitors there’s a reason Marcelo Bielsa’s side are still strongly favoured to go up. They have two kind fixtures coming up against Bolton and free-falling QPR before hosting West Brom in what promises to be a huge game, while the end to their campaign looks relatively straightforward, hosting a Wigan side that are desperately poor on the road and finishing up at bottom club Ipswich.

Leaders Norwich have a slightly more tricky schedule on paper, but again there’s not a great deal in it and they’ll be very optimistic if they can put an end to Bristol City’s remarkable run this weekend. That is, theoretically, the Canaries toughest test remaining, though they do have fewer matches (one, at Rotherham) than the competition against teams that rank among the bottom five in the division either at home or away.

It’s a different story, however, for West Brom, who still have to play six sides that rank among the league’s top ten based on where their meeting will be played. They face both Sheffield United and Leeds next, and while a home match against Ipswich should offer some respite, Swansea (10th best away), Brentford (fourth at home) and Birmingham (eighth away), aren’t simple matches thereafter.

It’s not until late April that the Baggies face another really favourable fixture ‘on paper’ with back-to-back games against Reading and Rotherham, but a trip to Derby on the final day is once again the toughest test of the teams challenging at the top. If, then, there is one team that may yet slip away, West Brom are the side that are perhaps most likely to have to settle for a play-off place.