Player Focus: Fellaini 'Rebirth' a Consequence of Lowered Expectations

Football has an in-built tendency to self-fulfilling prophecies, particularly when it’s selecting scapegoats. We’re seeing it now with Mario Balotelli. It would be absurd, of course, to suggest that the Italian is playing well, but neither is he the toblerone-footed lummox some would make out: it’s just that Balotelli has become the easy target, so every mistake he makes, everything that doesn’t quite go right, is added to the pile. The feeling is out there that he’s been a disappointment and so there is a confirmation bias: we are preconditioned to see the evidence that strengthens that case.

It is possible to come back from having been written off in that way - Jordan Henderson is a fine example – and, in fact, having been written off once means that once a tipping point is reached, the desire to hail a player as having turned the corner rapidly installs the confirmation bias on the other side of the equation: where once every missed chance or heavy touch was totted up, suddenly everybody starts remembering the completed passes or the interceptions.

It may be that Marouane Fellaini is going through that process now at Manchester United. Last season he was a joke figure, somebody who became emblematic of David Moyes’s small thinking. Within a month or so of his arrival on deadline day, there were those who were pronouncing him blatantly not good enough for a team of United’s level. And there was, in truth, something a little strange about his signing: just why did Moyes wait so long to sign him, bumping the price up, unless he wasn’t convinced he was right for United and so was waiting to see if he could find a better alternative?

The assumption was that Fellaini would be sold this summer, but he hung around and, after getting the equaliser against West Brom, he was arguably United’s best player against Chelsea, negating Cesc Fabregas, and adding a physicality that Van Gaal admitted his side had been lacking. So far has the rehabilitation of Fellaini progressed that on Sunday, there were Vines going around showing him pirouetting in his own half before laying the ball off.  That he traced an absurdly slow circle didn’t seem to matter: the desire now, it seems, is to paint Fellaini as a player reborn.

The truth is, he was never as bad as all that last season: his WhoScored.com rating in the league, in fact, was a relatively healthy 7.21, higher than the 7.12 he’s managed so far this (although the fact that three of his five appearances this season have been from the bench takes his average down a little), and higher too than two of his four seasons with Everton.

In some respects, in fact, his play improved last season to his time at Everton – in part because his role changed. While at Everton, Fellaini often played behind a front man, at United he was asked to play deeper. As a result, he managed fewer goals and assists – none and one, respectively last season, as opposed to eleven and five in his final full season at Everton, while key passes dropped from 1.3 per game to 0.3. On the other hand, his pass success rate went up from 79.2% to 88.5% as, playing deeper, he attempted fewer risky passes.

Position on the pitch also meant he won fewer balls in the air – down from 4.9 per game to 3.1 – and was more involved in regaining possession. In that final full season at Everton, he made 2.6 tackles and 1.2 interceptions per game; last season at United it was 2.8 tackles and 1.9 interceptions.

None of that is to try to claim Fellaini was a great success last season, but, as a player who only arrived on the final day of August, who had no pre-season to get to know his new team-mates, he wasn’t that bad. Similarly, this season’s seeming revival may simply be a case of people regarding similar form to last season but with less expectation, accepting Fellaini for what he is, which is a big, hard-working player, not the most technically gifted, but capable of diligently performing a specific role, and doing so with muscular rigour.

Has Marouane Fellaini's form improved significantly from last season? Let us know in the comments below