Match Focus: Ancelotti Frustrated as Madrid Champions League Tie Remains in Balance

There were no goals at the Vicente Calderon, but that left one big question following this Champions League quarter-final first leg: who does the 0-0 actually favour?

The answers given to that question revealed a lot. Carlo Ancelotti leant towards the negative. He described it as “not so good”, but the “best of the worst results”. Atletico Madrid’s Mario Suarez meanwhile tilted to the positive. The midfielder admitted it wasn’t the result they were aiming for, but pointed to how the exact same scoreline in last season’s semi-final first leg eventually saw them get through against Chelsea, with a 3-1 away-leg win.

That is the deeper issue with both the final score on Tuesday and the pattern of the play. Although the old-fashioned view would have been that Real did well to leave with a 0-0 in a European away leg, the modern Champions League should be causing that perspective to morph. It isn’t quite the result it used to be, because it isn’t the competition it used to be.

Given that the talent-stacked elite teams are now so close in quality, and so familiar with regularly meeting each other, there just isn’t the same awe about a European away game. They don’t carry the same psychological significance, but that conversely means that the away-goal rule itself can actually carry more meaning.

It was initially introduced in the late 1960s, to counter the trend of teams playing defensive football on unfamiliar pitches, precisely because they didn’t - and couldn't - know enough about the opposition to risk stepping out.

Now, that’s not the case. Brave sides can actually take full advantage of the anachronistic rule by going all out away from home. The dynamic should have changed. After all, they have much less to lose, since any goals they concede may literally not mean as much.

There was an element of this with Real Madrid on Tuesday, and it’s hard not to think that was also amplified by deep knowledge of Atletico’s style, as well as the latter’s superb record in this fixture. As a consequence of this 0-0, Ancelotti’s side are now under greater pressure to come out and create at home, potentially leaving more space in behind for a side that absolutely love to sit deep and hit them on the break. What’s more, barring another 0-0 that takes the game to penalties or gives Atletico an extra half-hour to get an away goal, Real will have to go and win the second leg. A draw will be enough for Diego Simeone, by contrast.

This surely explains Ancelotti’s relatively downbeat demeanour after this game because, in the first half, it did seem like Real wanted to win the tie there and then and ensure they would not have to go seeking goals in the second leg.

Atletico did try and start the game in the usually successful manner: they looked to congest space and then ceded possession, limiting themselves to 40% in the first half, which is just above the average of 37% for their last four meetings. The initial difference here, however, was the incisiveness of Real’s play. They were finally as free-flowing against Atletico as in extra-time of last season’s Champions League final, producing opportunities they never seemed capable of in the six meetings since then. That is emphatically proved by the stats.

In the space of just 45 first-half minutes, Real had more shots on target than in each of the last three games, and that from just 10 shots in total. Ancelotti's attack looked so much more efficient and sleeker.

They were simply creating better chances due to a better attacking game. Journalist Diego Torres had described Atletico’s defence as “denser than stone” on the eve of this first leg, but Real were finally finding holes in that backline. That is undoubtedly down to smooth control and quality of all of James Rodriguez, Luka Modric and Toni Kroos, which was then complemented by the superior intensity of Real’s forwards.

It’s remarkable to say it given Atletico’s fine recent record in this derby but, for a time, a Simeone team were struggling to cope with the opposition’s intensity. That is so rare. Only goalkeeper Jan Oblak seemed capable of living up to the level of the game, and it was of course he who stopped all those Real shots on target. That was never more impressive than with the save from Gareth Bale, and it may well be the key moment in this tie.
The Welshman may not just have blown that opportunity, but it could well mean Ancelotti blew his big chance of ever gaining the advantage in this quarter-final. Had Bale scored, it would have altered the entire dynamic of the two clubs’ recent meetings, given the dimension of the away goal. Simeone's side would have been under pressure to attack in the first leg, ceding their big tactical advantage.

Oblak instead made a big save, and Atletico hung on until half-time. Rather than Bale giving his team the chance to change their recent record, the goalkeeper instead gave Simeone the opportunity to fix what was wrong before real damage could be done.

A supreme tactician like the Argentine was obviously going to take that opportunity. He clearly assessed what was happening, and rectified it. In the second half, Atletico’s back line moved further forward, and Real were once more denied space. The density returned. From the half-time break, Ancelotti’s side only had another two shots on target, while Atletico eventually managed to create chances.

It creates a finely poised second leg, and leaves some other big questions. Did Ancelotti actually find the formula to beat Atletico in that first half, only for the relative bad luck of an over-performing goalkeeper to prevent them scoring, and can they replicate that rare intensity in the second leg to finally win?

Or, has the Italian played his hand too early - even if he obviously had to - and will Simeone know now exactly what to do counter it? It is a hugely enticing dynamic, and there’s almost a glorious element of game theory to it: who makes the decisive tactical move first.

That should certainly favour those watching.

Who do you think the first leg 0-0 favours most? Let us know in the comments below