Next Rangers Manager: Philippe Clement replacements identified as stats explain poor start

Exactly a year into his tenure, Rangers manager Philippe Clement is facing more intense scrutiny than ever, after a disappointing start to the season continued with the 1-0 defeat to Kilmarnock on Sunday. 

Clement’s side have taken 16 points from their opening eight matches in the Scottish Premiership, with five wins, a draw and two defeats thus far. 

The Gers, though, already sit six points behind table-topping rivals Celtic, and second-placed Aberdeen, both of whom have made impressive starts to the campaign, particularly in the case of the latter. 

Both Celtic and Aberdeen had notched seven victories from seven ahead of their meeting at Celtic Park on Saturday, with the sides playing out an entertaining 2-2 draw to preserve their unbeaten records.

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So where has it gone wrong for Rangers, just two months into the new season? 

Clement’s side took seven points from their opening three matches, before a disappointing 3-0 defeat away to Celtic at the beginning of September. Rangers bounced back from that loss to pick up three consecutive victories, before falling to late defeat at seventh-placed Kilmarnock on the weekend. 

A look at the underlying numbers of Clement’s side might just reveal the main reason they are where they are at this stage. Rangers are second to Celtic for shots and shots on target per game, as well as Expected Goals, but rank fifth for actual goals scored. 

The Ibrox side have netted 12 goals from 15.35xG, the second-largest underperformance in the division (-3.35). On the contrary, high-flying Aberdeen have created fewer xG than the Gers (11.01), but scored 17 goals. Jimmy Thelin’s side have scored nearly six more goals than expected of them, given the chances they have created.

Aberdeen’s shot conversion rate of 19% - the best in the Scottish Premiership by at least six percentage points - also illustrates the difference between them and Rangers so far this term. Philippe Clement’s side have found the net with 10% of their shots on goal, nearly half the rate at which Aberdeen are converting. 

Defensively, Rangers are not performing poorly. Their five goals conceded after eight games is the league’s second-lowest figure, after Celtic (three). Aberdeen, meanwhile, have conceded eight goals, despite being six points ahead. 

In this regard, the stats would suggest Philippe Clement’s side are actually lucky not to have conceded more so far. The Expected Goals metric implies that given the chances they have allowed their opponents, they should have conceded nine goals at this stage, rather than just five.  An xGA differential of -4.87 is the division’s second-largest, after - you guessed it - Aberdeen.

Next Rangers Manager Odds: Who are the options to replace Philippe Clement? 

With Philippe Clement seemingly on the brink at Rangers, we’ve taken a look at four possible replacements for the Belgian, in the event that he is dismissed. 

Steven Gerrard 

After leading the club to a remarkable 102-point unbeaten title-winning season in 2020/21, Steven Gerrard retains his admirers in Glasgow, and would surely crop up as a favourite to return to the role he left for Aston Villa in November 2021. 

The former Liverpool hero is currently manager of Saudi Pro League club Al-Ettifaq, where he has a contract until the summer of 2027. 

Derek McInnes 

After inflicting Rangers’ second league defeat of the season on Sunday afternoon, Kilmarnock boss Derek McInnes could soon find himself among the favourites for a vacant role at Ibrox. 

McInnes is approaching three years in his current post, and led Kilmarnock to a fourth-placed finish in the Scottish Premiership last season, their best since the 2018/19 campaign. 

Kevin Muscat 

Former Rangers defender Kevin Muscat came close to being appointed a year ago, with Philippe Clement reportedly chosen ahead of him. After being so closely considered last time around, the Australian would surely be a part of the club’s thinking again, should Clement need replacing. 

Muscat is currently in charge of Chinese Super League side Shanghai Port, after taking over in December 2023. 

David Moyes 

Given his Celtic past, the most controversial name on our list is that of David Moyes, who remains available after leaving West Ham at the end of last season. 

Moyes may represent the best-qualified option for Rangers at present, though it would remain to be seen whether the 61-year-old would consider making the move back to his home country. 

Back in 2016, it was reported that Moyes turned down an offer from Celtic, but it would seem he is keen on a move to Glasgow at some stage. Asked if he’d be open to managing one of the Old Firm sides, he said, “It’s my home and I’d like to come back and do it sometime, but while the Premier League’s so strong, that would probably still remain my interest.”