This is one of those weeks where across Europe there isn't much in the way of big games, but that means the most valuable odds are on the league leaders securing three points without difficulty. Also, with 38 goals scored in the last round of Serie A fixtures, it's wise to follow that line.
LIKELY BETS
Atalanta vs Verona: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @ 1.66
Verona will be without half of their usual defence through suspension, and that won't help the third worst away defence in Serie A. All the while, it is still important to note that the WhoScored Match Forecast predicts it as 'Likely' that Verona 'will score from a fast break situation'. Furthermore, Atalanta's Cigarini and for Verona's Romulo and Toni all rank in the top 10 for assists in Serie A this season; they are the only ones in the top 10 from minor teams.
Udinese vs Napoli: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @ 1.72
Both of these sides have already achieved their targets for the season, and this could make two already not unreliable defences rather more relaxed. The WhoScored Match Forecast predicts 4 different situations from which Napoli are likely to score - but don't forget that Napoli will probably be without Higuaín - while Udinese will line-up spearheaded by the consistently lethal Di Natale.
Chelsea vs Sunderland: CHELSEA (-1) TO WIN @ 1.24
The Champions League semi final is just around the corner, but Chelsea could take advantage of fatigue built up by Sunderland's exploits in drawing at the Etihad in midweek. It must be stressed that Chelsea have won 6 their last 7 home games by at least a 2 goal advantage, and the WhoScored Match Forecast is just a long list of the plentiful ways through which Chelsea could score.
TEMPTING BETS
Augsburg vs Hertha Berlin: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @ 1.83
Grab every opportunity for a Bundesliga 'Both Teams to Score' bet when it is offered with such high odds. 5 of Augsburg's last 7 home games have seen both teams net, and the WhoScored Database shows that the main strengths of the sides are attacking ones: 'Creating scoring chances' for Augsburg and 'Creating chances through individual skill' for Hertha.
Bastia vs Ajaccio: HOME WIN @ 1.90
This is the game that will probably subject Ajaccio to relegation. Bastia are comfortably sitting in lower mid-table, but they have the 5th best home record in Ligue 1 this season, while Ajaccio boast the second worst record in away games. According to the WhoScored Match Forecast it is 'Very Likely' that Bastia 'will score from a fast break situation', and Ajaccio may have no response.
Lorient vs Montpellier: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @ 1.83
The odds on 'both teams to score' in Ligue 1 games are always higher when compared to other leagues as the goal-per-game average is lower in France. The small risk is worthwhile here as Lorient have both scored and conceded in 4 of their last 6 home games, while Montpellier have done so in 5 of their last 6 matches.
LONG SHOT BETS
Norwich vs Liverpool: DRAW (LIVERPOOL -1) @ 3.60
At this point in time, the majority of fans think that the Reds can't possibly fail at Norwich. So if you think Liverpool will win, it could be more fruitful to bet on the gap by which they will do. Since October, Norwich have not lost at home by more than a single goal, and usually these end-of-season games for the title-challengers are not easy as they might look on paper. Last but not least, Norwich aren't exactly relaxed as they are still battling hard to avoid relegation.
Atlético Madrid vs Elche: DRAW (ATLÉTICO -1) @ 3.60
Each of Atlético's last 4 home games have ended in a 1-0 scoreline, no matter how important or daunting the rival and that might be because Simeone is trying to get wins with his players using the bare minimum in terms of energy. The WhoScored Match Forecast tells us that it is 'Likely' that they 'will control the game in the opposition half', and they should do that to try and keep risks to a minimum.
Hamburg vs Wolfsburg: AWAY WIN @ 2.30
These two sides are both just 1 point away from salvation. For Hamburg that is survival and for Wolfburg that is a Champions League spot. However, there is one tiny difference: Wolfsburg have only lost 1 of in their last 6, while Hamburg have won only 1 of their last 5. The odds make this one definitely worthwhile.
What are your top betting tips for the weekend's action? Let us know in the comments below
