How battling Brentford were dragged into a relegation dogfight

There may have only been a handful of Premier League games on Saturday and Sunday, but it still felt like a significant weekend in the relegation battle. 

A late Luton Town equaliser against Nottingham Forest meant they now head into the weekend above Nuno Espirito Santo’s side following their four-point deduction on Monday. Over at Turf Moor, a 2-1 victory over Brentford kept Burnley’s slim survival chances alive for a little while longer. 

That result also means Thomas Frank’s team are by no means guaranteed a place in next season’s top flight. Brentford are now only five points clear of the bottom three. That is a decent enough buffer for now, but their form is only trending in one direction. 

That loss in Lancashire on Saturday was Brentford’s 14th in their last 18 league games. Only Sheffield United (9) have accumulated fewer points over the last 12 rounds of fixtures than the Bees (10). With three tricky games against Manchester United, Brighton & Hove Albion and Aston Villa on the horizon, the west London could be in serious danger of dropping below the dreaded dotted line. 

As things stand, Brentford are outsiders to be demoted. Everton, as well as Nottingham Forest, could potentially be hit with another points penalty. Luton have not won any of their last eight and Burnley are surely doomed despite that rare success last time out. 

Yet Frank would not have expected his team to be in this position after overseeing a 2-0 defeat of Wolverhampton Wanderers on February 10th. That result saw them move six points clear of the relegation zone with a game in hand on most of the teams below them. 

Truth be told, Brentford have punched above their weight for some time now. It was always going to be difficult to replicate last season’s ninth-placed finish. We have grown accustomed to seeing Brentford do well, but they are still one of the smallest clubs in the Premier League. 

Relegation would nevertheless be a major disappointment. In their first two seasons at this level, Frank’s side were widely praised for being hard to beat and a nuisance to play against. That has not been the case over the last few months. 

Brentford might not have given up 17 shots against Burnley had Sergio Reguilon not been sent off early on. But only five teams have conceded more attempts per game than Brentford’s 14.8. 

The expected goals against data makes for better reading - the Bees rank 10th, above Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United - but Mark Flekken has struggled to adequately replace David Raya in goal, resulting in the concession of more of those attempts. Only the bottom three have let in more goals this term, while Sheffield United are the only team to have had their backline breached more often since the turn of the year. 

Profligacy at the other end of the field is another issue. Brentford have underperformed their expected goals by around nine, the second-largest deficit in the league behind Everton. Ivan Toney’s return from suspension has made Brentford more of a threat in attack, but they still need to be less wasteful in and around the penalty area. 

Frank has plenty to ponder. Having regularly switched between 3-5-2, 3-4-3 and 4-3-3 formations in 2021/22 and 2022/23, the Brentford boss has been reluctant to move away from a three-man backline of late. The 4-3-3 has not been used since 2023, but some fans are calling for a return to that shape in order to help Brentford out of their funk. 

"I’m very proud of the players and very proud of the effort they put into the game. We played an even game, even in the last part of the game," Frank said after the defeat by Burnley. 

"The only thing I care about is that we will be ready for the run-in and we will be ready to fight, no doubt about that." 

Saying that, Frank and his side can breathe a sigh of relief knowing the points gap between themselves and the relegation zone has increased from four to five following Forest's points penalty. However, Brentford still need to turn their form around if they are to guarantee a spot in England's top tier next term.