How Almiron transformed game to become crucial Newcastle goal threat

"Riyad (Mahrez), take him off the pitch, as soon as possible. He played like (Miguel) Almiron." 

When Jack Grealish muttered those words at the end of last season, it was seen as a dig. If Manchester City’s record signing repeated them now, it would be high praise.  

Miguel Almiron has five goals in his last five starts for Newcastle United. He scored the winner against Everton in midweek and then followed that up by netting what turned out to be the decisive goal in his last outing against Tottenham Hotspur.  

These back-to-back wins have lifted Eddie Howe’s men into fourth poisition in the Premier League. They can also boast the best defensive record in the English top-flight having only been breached on 10 occasions this season.  

Almiron is the player ensuring the Magpies are able to make the most of these defensive performances. The 28-year-old has been responsible for 30% of the goals scored by Newcastle this term.  

Only five players are responsible for higher contributions to a team’s goals total and only four players have found the back of the net with greater regularity.  

Erling Haaland (17), Harry Kane (10), Aleksandar Mitrovic (9) and Ivan Toney (8) are the only players who can boast a better goals record this season.  

It has been a dramatic turnaround in form for the Paraguay international. He netted just once last term and was often criticised for his lack of output. He had netted four times in each of his previous two full campaigns for the Toon Army, but the goals dried up during the 2021/22 campaign.  

Though this could be tied to his involvement. He averaged 2,700 mins across those seasons, but managed just a little over 1,700 last season. The former Atlanta United star made just 19 starts and came off the bench in a further 11 matches. It could best be described as a stop-start campaign for the No. 24.   

Howe heaped praise on Almiron following the win over Everton.  

"Last year, he played equally as well.  

"Maybe he didn't get the goals his performances deserved and if not scoring as an attacking player people don't speak about you so much. 

"This season he's picked up where left off and added goals. Some spectacular goals like the one in the week and some scrappy goals like the tap-in against Fulham. It's just great he's getting into goalscoring areas, he's playing with confidence and he's a very, very, important member of the team." 

While Howe noted his performances last term, as an attacker you are ultimately judged on goals.  

Goals change perceptions, narratives and stories. Goals give players something to hide behind if they didn’t have the best of games. Without goals, attackers are exposed and everything they do is analysed to the nth degree. Almiron now has the goals to support his overall performances and we’re witnessing a player filled with confidence delivering on a weekly basis.  

To add a little more context to Almiron’s return, his six goals this term is more than Allan Saint-Maximin has ever managed in a single season for Newcastle. In fact, the French winger has never bettered a return of six in a single campaign, not even during his time in Ligue 1.
But how has the left-footed maestro managed to scale his output? After all, it can’t solely be down to confidence. The numbers tell something of a story.  

Last season, Almiron was averaging 1.7 shots per 90. So far this time around, that figure is up to 2.8. What is interesting is that the 47-cap international has almost double the number of efforts he’s having from inside the penalty area. It has risen from 0.9 to 1.7.  

Not only is he having more shots on a per 90 basis, but he is also having higher value efforts. His Expected Goals (xG) average has jumped from 0.09 per 90 to 0.39. It isn’t the largest sample size, but this sort of change suggests it is something Howe, his coaching team and the player have worked on and they are now reaping the rewards.  

Remarkably, he has almost matched his xG haul for 2020/21 and 2021/22 combined. Across those two campaigns, he racked up an xG total of 5.22 and he’s already on 4.66 this time around. This is not just a hot streak. This is the development of a player before our very eyes.