Assessing the Premier League fixture difficulty key to European and relegation battles

On the day the Premier League returns, there is still plenty to play for in England's top tier. No, not in the title race, where Liverpool sit 25 points clear of second-placed Manchester City as we near the final stretch of the season, but rather in the race for Europe and the battle to avoid the drop. 

At this stage, the Premier League is Liverpool's to throw away and it would take a cataclysmic collapse for them to not lift their first top-flight title since 1990. The more interesting race at the top of the table comes in the bid to secure a Champions League finish. 

City sit 12 points clear of Chelsea in fourth and, with a game in hand over those around them, they should make light work of their remaining opponents to finish in the top four. Indeed, using WhoScored.com's unique rating system, we assessed the difficulty of each the Premier League side's run in using the home and away rating of their respective opponents to come up with a final score against a league average and it shows that City have the easiest finish to the campaign. 

The average rating of their looming opponents is 6.675, that the lowest in the league and far lower than the Premier League's average of 6.761. Had the gap between themselves and Liverpool been shorter, then an exciting end to the campaign at the Premier League's summit could have been on the cards, particularly given the difficulty of Liverpool's run in. 

An average rating 6.781 is above the league average and one of the highest of the 20 teams in England's top tier. That's largely due to the fact they are still to face City, Arsenal and Chelsea before the campaign comes to a head, while the Merseyside Derby to begin their return to action will be one that is tough to navigate. 

In the battle for the top-four, it's Wolves (6.721) who have the easiest run in, that in itself the second lowest in the Premier League. Nuno Espirito Santo's side have won ample admirers this season and they kick off with clashes against three relegation counterparts in West Ham, Bournemouth and Aston Villa. They are still to face Arsenal, Sheffield United and Chelsea, but given their form prior to lockdown, they'll look to use the momentum possibly gained from their opening three meetings to help their Champions League push. 

Especially as it is Chelsea who, of those from fourth down to ninth, have the hardest run in with an average WhoScored rating of 6.782 of their remaining opponents. The Blues sit just three points clear of Manchester United in fifth and have won only three of their last nine Premier League matches. Clashes with City, Sheffield United, Liverpool and Wolves await Frank Lampard's side, so too does a trip to West Ham, where they have struggled in recent seasons. 

What's more, Sheffield United and Arsenal each have a game in hand on the Blues and if the former overcomes Aston Villa this evening, then the gap between fourth and fifth will narrow to just two points. The Blades have excelled following their promotion with Chris Wilder rightly drawing admiration from his peers and fans alike. However, with an average WhoScored rating of 6.776, they too have a tough end to the campaign, given they are still to face Tottenham, Wolves, Chelsea and Leicester, but victory tonight will give them a confidence boost ahead of their end to the campaign. 

Arsenal, too, will aim to use their additional game to to good advantage and with a WhoScored average rating of 6.771 of their remaining opponents, the Gunners have a marginally easier run in than Sheffield United. That said, they need to secure maximum points at Manchester City to really boost their chances of a Champions League return, though they aren't to be underestimated at the Etihad Stadium. 

Mikel Arteta's side are on the longest current unbeaten streak in the Premier League having not tasted defeat for eight successive league matches, and that pre-lockdown form is a solid foundation to build upon. North London rivals Tottenham (6.725) do, statistically, have an easier run in than the Gunners, and the third easiest in the Premier League, and the upcoming North London Derby could prove crucial in the race for the Champions League. 

At the other end of the table, Bournemouth fans should look away now. The relegation threatened Cherries have the most difficult run in in England's top tier, with the average rating of their opponents a testing 6.807. Eddie Howe's side still have to face five of the current top eight, including a crunch five match run in July culminating in a South Coast Derby. 

Villa at least have a game in hand to call upon, but the welcome of Sheffield United will be anything by straight forward. What's more, the average rating of the sides still to face is a tough 6.789, that the second hardest of the bottom six sides. The Villans face six of the current top nine over the coming weeks and don't face of the teams around them until the final day of the campaign, where they travel to east London to face West Ham. 

The Hammers, at 6.748, have a marginally easier run in, which should be a boost for David Moyes' side. West Ham still have meetings with Wolves and Tottenham to mark their return to league action, and a trip to Manchester United on the horizon, but given they face Watford, Norwich and Villa over the coming weeks, their Premier League future is in their hands. Sat level on points with the Hornets, West Ham's meeting with Watford on July 15th could be decisive. 

Nigel Pearson has the experience of beating the drop, but the difficulty of their run in is currently at 6.782. Watford face Leicester at the weekend, however it's their end to the campaign that may decide their fate. They face the Hammers, Manchester City and Arsenal to see out the campaign in a make or break run of fixtures. Basement boys Norwich (6.753) have it easier still and, if they are to make up the six-point gap between themselves and saftey, then a three-game run in July where they take on Brighton, Watford and West Ham are the ones to watch out for. Secure positive results in those, then the great escape is on the cards. 

Of those in the bottom six, it's Brighton (6.741) who have the easiest run in. The Seagulls host Arsenal, Manchester United, Liverpool and Manchester City at the AMEX before the campaign comes to a head, but Graham Potter's side have been solid on home turf this term to boost their safety chances.