Martin Odegaard vs James Maddison: Arsenal's £35m dilemma
It's set to be another important summer at Arsenal, and while the club have looked to add experience to their squad in recent years, relying on their academy to provide the youthful blend, there appears to be a change of tack.
In a bid to make an immediate return to European football having finished last season in eighth, the Londoners have signed Nuno Tavares as much needed cover at left-back, Albert Sambi Lokonga in midfield and are expected to complete a big money move for Brighton's Ben White before the week is out.
Next on the agenda for the Gunners appears to be bolstering the creativity in their squad, following on from the extension of Emile Smith Rowe's contract. While the graduate has been handed the number ten shirt for next season, it's another number ten that is seemingly the priority on Mikel Arteta's wish list, with two frontrunners for the role already identified.
The first option would be an attempt to make Martin Odegaard's loan move from Real Madrid a permanent one, following a stint in London last season. The alternative would appear to be long-term target James Maddison from Leicester City, but crucially there is reportedly a huge disparity in the asking price for each.
Indeed, while Real Madrid are believed to be willing to accept a fee in the region of £35m for Odegaard, Leicester are thought to be demanding twice that for Maddison. So how do the two compare, and do the stats justify that vast difference in valuation?
First of all, it would be remiss not to mention the limited sample size we are working with when it comes to Odegaard. While one could look to the Norwegian's numbers in LaLiga and the Eredivisie with Real Sociedad and Vitesse respectively, it's his ability to cope with the rigours on the Premier League that will be vital in Arsenal's decision, so those are the numbers we have assessed.
While on the face of it the 22-year-old didn't set the league alight following his January switch, with a modest return of one goal and two assists in 14 appearances, his underlying numbers were encouraging if unspectacular.
Chief among Odegaard's assets is his composure and ability to retain possession, even in advanced areas, which is something that unsurprisingly appeases Arteta. On the flip side, he could perhaps be criticised for not taking too many risks with the ball, but for a young player adapting to a new and improved league to be a little cautious in his attempt to make a strong first impression is understandable.
An average of 1.6 key passes from open play per 90 is a solid return regardless, and slightly superior to Maddison's average of 1.5 for the Foxes last season. Odegaard did, in fact, outscore the Englishman in a number of attacking metrics in the Premier League last season.
He held another marginal advantage in terms of successful dribbles per 90 (1.4 to 1.2) and, as mentioned, showed greater ability to keep the ball. His 20.2 accurate passes per 90 in the final third was a significant improvement on Maddison's 15.7, whilst his overall pass accuracy of 90.9 per cent - second of all attacking midfielders in the Premier League last season - once more blew Maddison's modest 83.3 per cent out of the water.
The biggest difference in terms of the two in Maddison's favour was the all important end product, at least as far as shots at goal are concerned. Not short on confidence, the 24-year-old rattled off a lofty 3.2 shots per 90 last season and was rewarded with eight goals. It was his best tally in the top-flight despite seeing his playing time restricted by injury - starting 24 of 31 appearances - and that goal threat is among the most pivotal factors when it comes to the valuation of the pair.
While Odegaard showed in glimpses his ability to impact games for the Gunners last season, Maddison has proven calibre at this level of being decisive in them. Throw in the fact that he's English and, rightly or wrongly, you begin to understand the inflated asking price to that of Odegaard.
While some might argue that Odegaard has a higher ceiling when it comes to potential given he is two years younger, the lack of guarantees in reaching it all but quash said claim. Indeed, at 24 Maddison still has plenty of room for growth himself and has proven he is capable of improving over time in the same division.
Where Odegaard has played in three different leagues and at three different levels, it's far more difficult to really plot his progression and potential compared to Maddison.
Nevertheless, the early signs in the statistics are encouraging and the fact that the former loanee has been a priority target of the club all summer highlights Arteta's faith in Odegaard's ability to fulfil that undoubted promise. Factor in what has been a relatively long standing injury problem for Maddison that spanned much of last season, and spending £35m on the Norway international is arguably the lower risk option than breaking the bank for the Leicester livewire.