Poor Premier League form has Forest looking nervously over their shoulder
April is approaching and the score is still 30-26. Ahead of a crunch clash with Wolverhampton Wanderers this weekend, Nottingham Forest have still made more signings than they have won points this season.
It has been an extraordinary campaign off the pitch for Forest. It is true that substantial investment was needed following their Championship playoff triumph last term, since several players departed before the start of the Premier League season. Even so, few Forest fans expected the club to be quite so active in the summer and winter windows.
Yet despite - or perhaps, in part, because of - the addition of 30 new players, Forest remain vulnerable to relegation. They head into Saturday’s showdown at the City Ground just two points clear of the bottom three.
The form of Steve Cooper’s side is a concern. Forest have taken just two points from the last 18 available, the joint-worst record in the division over that timeframe. After a rally in the first few weeks of 2023, Forest are once again in danger of dropping into the bottom three.
Their involvement in the relegation battle should not be a surprise. Finishing 17th is considered a success for virtually every promoted club, especially those who go up through the playoffs. Given Forest were in the Championship relegation zone 18 months ago, their present position of 16th in the top flight is not to be sniffed at.
After a poor start to the season, Forest showed signs of increased cohesion around the turn of the year. Cooper seemed to have settled on a favoured starting XI; across his team’s first four Premier League games of the year, the Welshman made only three changes. But another influx of new signings in January has disrupted the balance once more.
Forest added seven more players to their squad in the mid-season market. Some have impressed, not least the Brazilian centre-back Felipe. Acquired from Atletico Madrid, the experienced 33-year-old has brought grit and resolve to the backline.
Yet just as Cooper was beginning to get to grips with an unwieldy squad, he has had to contend with another set of players who each believe they deserve to be starting. In Forest’s last four fixtures, Cooper has made seven changes. Every manager likes to have numerous options at his disposal, but there is such a thing as too many choices.
In a run of seven games stretching back to before the World Cup, Forest kept four clean sheets. But that new-found defensive solidity has deserted them of late. Forest have shipped 14 goals over the last six matchdays, by far the worst record in the division. Even the notoriously leaky Bournemouth backline has been breached only 11 times in that period.
The Cherries (54) are now the only team to have conceded more goals this season than Forest (49). Cooper’s team are giving up 14.4 shots per game, the fourth-most in the league. In their aforementioned six-game winless streak, Forest’s opponents have taken an average of 16.2 shots per match.
Their away record throughout the 2022/23 campaign is further cause for concern. Forest’s counter-attacking style - only Bournemouth (37.8) average less than their 40.5% possession - means they should be well suited to matches on the road. Yet Forest have amassed only six points at opposition stadiums, with a pitiful return of four goals in those 13 games.
That makes Forest heavily reliant on their home form, but they have collected just two points from the last nine available in Nottingham. Manchester United, Brighton & Hove Albion and Arsenal still have to visit the City Ground, which makes home games against the likes of Wolves and Southampton even more pivotal.
Forest’s fate is still in their own hands. When they were rooted to the foot of the table as late as November, they would have settled for being outside the dropzone with 11 games remaining.
Their next three matches could go a long way to determining Forest’s season. After the visit of Wolves on Saturday, Cooper will take his team to Leeds and Aston Villa. A return of six points from those fixtures would bolster their position. Conversely, a continuation of their form before the international break would leave Forest deep in trouble.
