Top Match Preview: Can Chelsea's three-man defence stop United?
At the core of Antonio Conte’s entire career, there is a curiosity - and it is not why he picked Stamford Bridge for a big project straight after the wreckage left by Jose Mourinho’s departure.
The new Chelsea manager has always greatly preferred playing four at the back, to the point that he has based much of his thinking around it. His Coverciano thesis - the document required to ultimately get through Italy’s prestigious coaching school - was even written on the formation, entitled ‘4-3-1-2 and the educational use of video’. As his first few weeks at Stamford Bridge made clear, too, it would generally be his first preference when setting up a team.
The problem is that it has proven nowhere near as effective for him as three at the back. Conte may not even be a true believer in the latter, but the way he has wielded has meant he has inadvertently become an evangelist for its second coming. More and more teams - especially in the Premier League - are using three in defence, and it’s difficult not to feel much of this specifically comes from the work of managers like Conte.
The formation was the literal foundation of all his most high-profile successes. It was the root of three successive league titles at Juventus, including one record-breaking unbeaten league season. It was the root of his immensely impressive Euro 2016 campaign, where a largely unfancied Italy became tournament revelations.
Now, it could well be the root of Chelsea finally righting so many problems. Conte went to three at the back against both Hull City and Leicester City and the side seemed to go up a level. They kept successive clean sheets for the first time in the league since the start of the year, and of course claimed successive wins after successive defeats to Liverpool and Arsenal.
Those bare stats obviously have to be put in the context of two very forgiving fixtures against Hull City and a distracted Leicester City, but there were elements of the performance - independent of the opposition - that were very promising. Most obviously, there was just the right balance to the team. There were no chasmic gaps between midfield and attack, say, as there were in the defeats to Liverpool and Arsenal. It all just fit together, and they were able to comfortably defend with no cost to the attack, and vice versa.
That could be seen how they made more tackles per game (19 in those to compared to 16.8) and more interceptions (16 to 12) but still made more key passes (15 to 12.7) and had more shots (19 to 16.7).
That balance across the pitch will be tested this weekend by a better team than either Hull or Leicester, but also so many elements specifically associated with Sunday’s visitors. Mourinho’s return to Stamford Bridge will be discussed so much in the build-up to the game, but one way that it is likely to especially influence what happens on the pitch is that the driven Portuguese will be determined not to lose, and thereby sit deep and hope for counters.
So, while one side will be balanced across the field, the other will be compressed into one area. Will Conte’s attack be able to be as expansive and effective against that kind of rear-guard, or is this actually the type of game where it doesn’t really matter if he plays three at the back, because of Mourinho’s willingness to give up the ball and the pitch?
Alternatively, because it will be Chelsea who need to make the play, does that make that cohesion between midfield and attack that this three at the back brings all the more important? Chelsea have already changed manager, imbuing this match with even more importance than usual, because it brings the return of Mourinho.
That new manager has already significantly changed formation. This match will give a clearer picture as to whether even more elements need to be changed, or three at the back really does enhance so much of Conte’s management - let alone his teams.
What do you think will be the outcome when Chelsea welcome Manchester United on Sunday? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below
